I mentioned a while ago that the prognosis for the Mexican economy had steadily been plumeting, with independent "experts" claiming a larger contraction of the economy followed quickly by the government claiming that it wasn't that bad. The graph below explains is better.

So when I stopped following this in May, the prognosis was a 5.8% contraction for 2009. We now have the real numbers for the first trimester of 2009; 9.0%
Experts are claiming that the second trimester will be 9.5%. So the Mexican economy either has to make a fantastic comeback in the last half of the year, or we're looking at a 8-9% contraction (NOT 4% like the Secretary of Finance predicts).